Saturday, April 18, 2009

AP Elections: My Watch List (Part 2)

1. Loyal Translations in Rajahmundry:

The CM Rajasekhar Reddy calls him Manchi Anuvada-vaadi. Rajahmundry Congress MP, Vundavalli Aruna Kumar started off as a translator of Rajiv Gandhi’s speeches into Telugu, and continues to do so for Soniaji’s and Rahulji’s speeches during their tours in Andhra. He is loyal to both Sonia and YSR. When YSR decided to take on Ramoji Rao, Vundavalli volunteered to do the “frontal attack”. Such activities, party responsibilities and outside tours kept him away from common voters in Rajahmundry for long periods of time. He had to hurriedly inaugurate a new east side Railway booking counter a day before the election code came into effect. This adds to his list of other achievements such as his drive for sanitation, construction of rail over-bridges, setting up of a university and an agriculture college. Last year, however, he had to make unconditional apology to dalits for making belittling comments on Dr. Ambedkar. This is not a spectacular record for this highly visible and vocal Congress leader.

TDP and PRP sensed the vulnerability of Vundavalli and fielded strong star candidates like Murali Mohan and Krishnam Raju. Murali Mohan had an early start with campaign and may be getting the support of Eenadu/Etv. Krishnam Raju came into the fry late, but has the advantage of a very successful Praja Viaja Bheri – a mammoth public meeting held by Chiranjeevi in Rajahmundary.

2. Billionaire in Bezwada

With declared assets worth Rs. 299 crore, Congress MP (Vijayawada), Lagadapati Rajagopal is the richest person in Andhra to file nomination in this election. Interestingly, he had declared his assets to be worth Rs. 9.6 crores at the time of 2004 elections. Rajgopal claims the volume of his property has not gone up, but the value has gone up. That is whopping 31-fold increase in value.

By the way, the richest Indian to contest this election is Deepak Bhardwaj, the Bahujan Samaj Party MP candidate for West Delhi. He beats Khimji Patadia, an Independent candidate for Surendranagar with assets worth Rs 514 crore. Lagadapati comes in the third position. Also, majority of the major party candidates in this elections are crorepatis: TRS 77 per cent, TDP 63 per cent, Congress 48 per cent, PRP 31 per cent. Moreover, TDP candidates, with Rs.23 crores average asset base, top the list, followed by Congress candidates with an asset base of Rs.4 crores.

Coming back to Rajagopal, he says he does not believe that votes can be purchased by money. He declares that the performance of the Congress, that is Sonia Gandhi at the Centre and Dr. Reddy in the State, would fetch him 90 per cent of the votes and his own personal performance and charisma would fetch him the remaining 10 per cent. We have to see those 90% + 10 % votes add up to get him the highest percentage of total votes polled on the election day against Mahakootami candidate, Vallabhaneni Vamsimohan and PRP candidate, Chanumolu Rajiv.

3. Bull Racing in Chilakaluripet:


Bull races are part of the village folklore in this constituency in Guntur Dt., and the sitting Congress MLA Marri Rajasekhar is a big fan and sponsoror of these spectacular races named after his fasther-in-law (Somepalli Sambaiah Memorial State wide Annual Bull Race Competitions). In these races, a pair of bulls that pulls a solid stone slab weighing about three tonnes to the highest distance (> 2,500 feat) in 10 minutes is declared the winner. In this election, Rajasekhar is in similar situation. He has to pull the maximum number votes with his neck tied down by the weight of opposition from naxal rebels, a resurgent TDP candidate, Prathipati Pulla Rao and polarizing PRP candidate, Posani Krishna Murali.

The idiosyncratic maverick film script-writer, actor and director Posani who declared to his party workers that “Dabbulu adigina vadu, tisukuni pracharam chese vadu iddaru vedhavalu (Those who ask for money and those who take money are idiots)” does not look like a winning candidate.

4. Shifting Loyalties in Rajyampet:

On July 22, 2008, the left parties pulled out their support to the UPA government and introduced no-confidence motion as a protest against the Indo-US civil nuclear deal. Chadrababu Naidu (who was notable as the pro US and pro Capitalism CM at that time) decided to throw his weight (5 MPs) with communists to pull down Manmohan Singh’s government. Two of the five TDP MPs defied the party whip and saved the Congress Govt. For this act, TDP expelled its Chittoor MP, D.K. Adikesavulu Naidu and the Congress rewarded him with the TTD chairmanship. He was expecting to get Congress ticket to Rajampet, but was denied the seat. His son, D. A. Srinivas joined PRP and got the chance to contest as MP from Rajampet. To win, Srinivas has to defeat the well-entrenched sitting Congress MP, A. Sai Pratap who will also benefit from Y. S. Jagan Mohan Reddy’s contest from the neighboring Kadpa seat. TDP fielded Ramesh Kumar Reddy for this seat. A win for D. A. Srinivas will reflect the strength of PRP and Chiranjeevi “samajika nyayam” plank.

5. Pravasa (NRI) Pratinidhi and Chiru Abhimani in Madanapalle:

Inspired by the success of Madhu Yashki who got the Nizamabad MP seat in 2004 (got elected and became a prominent Congress leader), many NRIs from the US, UK and other countries moved to A. P. to try their luck in grabbing an MLA and MP seat. However, most of the aspirants faced disappointment and incurred loss of their time, effort and money. One successful candidate is the head of KAD DVD Overseas Operations, Chinna Vasu Deva Reddy who is contesting as a PRP candidate at Madanapalle. He has to take on TDP’s Sagar Reddy and Congress’s Shahjahan Basha. This is not a high profile contest, but it would be of interest to us to see if Vasu Deva Reddy becomes a second successful NRI story in Andhra politics.

6. Mahilala Maha pOti in Chandragiri:


Chandragiri has created a record by having four women nominated to the seat by all the four major political parties: Congress Minister for Medical Education Galla Arunakumari and Telugu Mahila president R.K. Roja are the key contestants. BJP nominated Gali Pushpalatha while the Praja Rajyam (PR) chose S. Sai Ramani Reddy. This is partly necessitated by a slight majority of women voters in this district. It is definitely nice to see this change from the mostly male dominated contests elsewhere. By the way, out of 3,655 contestants in the fray for the 294 seats, only 300 (8.2 per cent) contestants are women. TRS never nominated a woman so far except for Vijayasanthi (who does not come from TRS cadres).

Before the formation of maha kootami and NTR Jr.’s electrifying campaign, Roja provided most of the media splash for TDP. She has been very effective in targeting Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy and Chiranjeevi with her “punch dialogues”, which found favor with masses. Mahesh Babu reportedly requested NTR Jr. not to campaign in this constituency to save his sister’s mother-in-law (Arunakumari). NTR Jr. appears to have “accidentally” complied with Mahesh Babu’s request. We have to see if the seat will swing between Congress and TDP or a new voter alignment throws a surprise.

AP Elections: My Watch List (Part 1)

(1) Tranformative Politics at Kukatpally (Hyderabad):


Dr. Jayaprakash Narayan will usher in a major transformation of politics in AP and India by winning this MLA seat. The win will not be easy against powerful opponents: Vaddepalli Narsinga Rao of Congress, M. Sudharshan Rao of TRS and Kuna Venkatesh Goud of PRP and M.Kantharao of BJP. These successful businessmen have considerable personal resources as well as support of the established party machinery. They are offering freebies (varaala varshaalu) like free medical insurance, free color TVs, and/or "promise" of separate Telangana etc. Jayaprakash promises equal opportunity for all people irrespective of their socioeconomic background, and good governance. I hope he wins.

(2) Pride of NTR at Visakhapatnam:


Daggupati Purandaeswari - a soft spoken and charming intellectual, author of a book, Congress MP from Bapatla, and current central Minister of State for Human Resources who drew wide attention for her eloquent speeches at international events representing India has moved to this constituency as Bapatla became a reserved constituency. Visakhapatnam voters have been electing outsiders for the past several election cycles starting with T. Subbirami Reddy and N. Janardhana Reddy. This is causing some resentment among locals against the current candidate. Moreover, Chiru fans and PRP (Palla Srinivas Yadav) supporters are likely to give a good flight in many parts of this constituency. However, Purandeswari is successful in getting the support of the two former Congress MPs. It is ironic that this daughter of NTR is flourishing in Congress Party that was an anathema to NTR. She has a good chance to win the seat.

(3) Praja Rajyam Test Case Anakapalli:

PRP sent its number 2 leader Allu Aravind to contest as MP at Anakapalli and fielded its district convener, Ganta Srinivas Rao as MLA candidate. It is interesting that Ganta Srinivas Rao decided to contest against his friend and a senior Congress minister, Konathala Ramakrishna and former colleague Dadi Veerabhadra Rao (TDP). All three are well known in Anakapalli and were elected as MLA or MP at one time, but Dadi and Konathala are local political veterans with deep roots in this constituency. This high stakes contest attracted high profile visits of Rahul Gandhi (first election stop in AP by the "future" PM) and many film stars including Chiranjeevi, Allu Arjun (who celebrated his birthday during the campaign). PRP wins in AKP will signal a PRP wave in north coastal Andhra.

(4) Family Affair in Vizianagram:

Congress is fielding four members of Botsa family: State housing minister Bosta Satyanarayana is in the race for Chipurupalli Assembly seat while his wife Jhansi is seeking election from Vizianagaram Lok Sabha seat. Botsa's younger brother Appala Narasaiah is contesting the Gajapatinagaram Assembly seat while their nephew Appala Naidu is the candidate from Nellimarla. Botsa Satyanarayana shot into fame when he hurriedly wrote a cheque for Rs. 11 cores (2 million euros) to Vashishta Wahan (a fake company) to bring Volkswagen car factory to Vizag. It will be interesting to see if voters will vote 4 members of Botsa family to represent them in the Assembly and Parliament.

(5) Pandering to minortities in Nizamabad:

PCC president and the Nizamabad Urban Assembly candidate, D Srinivas, reportedly stated that “he would sacrifice his head for the minorities if need be and would cut off the hands of those who pointed a finger at them”. For similar offensive language, Varun Gandhi is put in jail under NSA act and the EC advised BJP to drop him from the contest. But the local ECO, I. V. Subba Rao gave only a warning to D. Srinivas, and advised him not to repeat similar statements. D. Srinivas got lucky with the Election commission, but will he get lucky with electorate?

(6) Will of God in Secunderabad:

Sahaja nati Jayasudha believes that if God wants her to win, nobody will stop her. Also she says - "I am not that kind of person - I do not like to pose with poor people to get votes". On pressure from the party, she reluctantly went into streets in a jeep. On one occasion she had to retreat from one location as the local congress leaders did not allow her convoy. She has a simple message: “I’m film actress Jayasudha. I got attracted by the Arogyasri scheme and I decided that I should join the Congress and serve the poor.” she starts off, and adds, “Srinivas Yadav`garu’ won previously. So please give a chance to a woman now. I promise to serve you better.’’ It is a wonder that Congress gave a ticket to a person with such naivety and inexperience. The reason for the ticket appears to be the “common faith” besides cinema glamour. Jaysudha, K. A. Paul, Leo Augustine, Natti Kumar, YSR son-in-law Anil Kumar appear to be mixing politics with faith to derive maximum benefit for themselves and their faith. Jayasudha’s win will point to a new trend of faith politics in AP.